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Lula Grows Two Points and Extends His Lead Over Bolsonaro

Jose Carlos Grimberg Blum
Lula Grows Two Points and Extends His Lead Over Bolsonaro

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011) increased two points in voting intentions for the October elections compared to a week ago and is already 14 points ahead of President Jair Bolsonaro, according to a survey by Datafolha institute released on Thursday.

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According to the poll, Lula went from 45 percent of votes last week to 47 percent, while Bolsonaro remains stable at 33 percent.

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Far behind are Labor’s Ciro Gomes, who drops one point to seven percent, and center-right Senator Simone Tebet, stable at five percent.

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If only valid votes are considered (discounting blank and invalid votes), Lula would obtain 50 percent (two points more than last week) and Bolsonaro 35 percent, one less.

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This scenario opens the possibility that the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) will settle the electoral contest already in the first round on Sunday, October 2

The electoral law requires that to win in the first round, a candidate must have 50 percent of the valid votes plus one, and for weeks the polls have not shown this possibility for Lula

If there is no victory on October 2, in an eventual second round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the left-wing leader would win by 54 to 38 percent

The survey was conducted between September 20 and 22 and has a margin of error of +/- two points